On January 3, 2026, the geopolitical architecture of the Western Hemisphere underwent a seismic shift with the execution of "Operation Absolute Resolve," a unilateral military intervention by the United States that resulted in the capture and extraction of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and First Lady Cilia Flores. This operation, characterized by its tactical precision and strategic audacity, marks a definitive departure from decades of diplomatic containment, signaling the operational debut of the "Don-roe Doctrine"—a revived and militarized interpretation of the Monroe Doctrine tailored for the 21st century.
The removal of Maduro has effectively decapitated the Bolivarian regime, yet it has not resulted in an immediate democratic restoration. Instead, the United States has facilitated a pragmatic, if controversial, transition of power to Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, prioritizing stability and the security of energy assets over the immediate installation of the democratic opposition led by Edmundo González and María Corina Machado. This decision has fractured the international community, drawing condemnation from strategic competitors like China and Russia, while placing European and Latin American allies in a precarious diplomatic bind between upholding international legal norms and acknowledging the removal of a deeply unpopular autocrat.
This report offers an exhaustive analysis of the operation’s tactical execution, the complex legal frameworks governing the intervention, the immediate political fallout within Caracas, and the long-term structural implications for global energy markets and international relations. It posits that while Operation Absolute Resolve successfully neutralized a hostile regime, it has set a volatile precedent for unilateral statecraft, creating a fragile transition period defined by a struggle for control over the world's largest proven oil reserves.
1. Contextual Framework: The Road to Intervention
To fully comprehend the magnitude of Operation Absolute Resolve, one must analyze the deteriorating conditions that precipitated this unprecedented projection of U.S. power. The intervention was not an isolated tactical decision but the kinetic culmination of a decade-long crisis characterized by economic collapse, authoritarian consolidation, and the increasing penetration of extra-hemispheric powers into the Caribbean basin.
1.1 The Erosion of the Bolivarian State
By late 2025, the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela had effectively transitioned from a failing state to a criminalized autocracy. The regime, established by Hugo Chávez and consolidated by Nicolás Maduro, presided over the most severe economic contraction in peacetime history outside of war zones.1 The mismanagement of the state-owned oil company, Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PDVSA), combined with plummeting global oil prices and crippling U.S. sanctions, led to a collapse in production from a peak of 3.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in the late 1990s to roughly 800,000 bpd by 2025.2
This economic implosion triggered a humanitarian catastrophe, forcing nearly 8 million Venezuelans—approximately a quarter of the population—to flee the country, destabilizing neighboring Colombia, Brazil, and creating migration pressures as far north as the United States border.3 Internally, the regime survived through a complex patronage network involving the military high command (the FANB) and illicit revenue streams. The United States Department of Justice (DOJ) had long characterized the regime not merely as a rogue government but as the "Cartel of the Suns" (Cártel de los Soles), a narco-trafficking organization embedded within the state apparatus, allegedly utilizing state assets to traffic cocaine to the United States and Europe.5
1.2 The 2024 Election and the Crisis of Legitimacy
The immediate catalyst for the intensification of U.S. pressure was the fraudulent presidential election of July 2024. Despite widespread polling indicating a landslide victory for opposition candidate Edmundo González—standing in for the disqualified María Corina Machado—the regime-controlled National Electoral Council (CNE) declared Maduro the winner without releasing precinct-level results.5 The international community, including the United States, the European Union, and major Latin American democracies, refused to recognize the results, citing irrefutable evidence of fraud collected by opposition monitors.5
Maduro's inauguration for a third term on January 10, 2025, solidified his isolation but also demonstrated the resilience of his internal security apparatus, which successfully repressed subsequent protests through mass arrests and violence.5 For the incoming Trump administration in the United States, this signaled the failure of diplomatic pressure and sanctions alone to effect regime change. The continued entrenchment of the regime, bolstered by support from Russia, China, and Iran, was increasingly viewed in Washington not just as a human rights issue, but as a direct challenge to U.S. strategic dominance in the Western Hemisphere.8
1.3 Strategic Encirclement: Operation Southern Spear
Throughout 2025, the U.S. posture shifted from diplomatic isolation to active military encirclement. In August 2025, the U.S. began a significant military buildup in the Caribbean, deploying warships, fighter jets, and special operations forces under the guise of counter-narcotics operations.6 This escalated in September with "Operation Southern Spear," a campaign of kinetic strikes against vessels in the Caribbean and Pacific suspected of trafficking drugs for the regime. These interdictions, which reportedly resulted in over 115 fatalities, served a dual purpose: degrading the regime's illicit revenue streams and testing Venezuelan defensive responses.6
By December 2025, the U.S. had imposed a de facto maritime blockade, seizing tankers attempting to export Venezuelan crude, thereby strangling the regime's remaining economic lifeline.6 This steady escalation created a "gray zone" conflict, eroding the regime's capabilities while preparing the operational environment for the decisive strike that would launch in the first days of 2026.
2. Anatomy of Operation Absolute Resolve
Operation Absolute Resolve represents a paradigm shift in U.S. military strategy in Latin America, utilizing a "decapitation" methodology designed to excise the regime's leadership with surgical precision while minimizing the footprint of a traditional invasion. The operation's success relied on total information dominance, stealth technology, and the integration of special operations forces with overwhelming air power.
2.1 Intelligence Preparation and Rehearsal
The success of the operation was predicated on granular intelligence regarding the movements and security protocols of Nicolás Maduro. Throughout late 2025, the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) reportedly infiltrated the inner circle of the regime, utilizing human sources to map the security architecture of Maduro's residence at Fort Tiuna, a military complex in Caracas.13 This intelligence stream was critical, as Maduro frequently rotated his location to evade detection.
Parallel to the intelligence gathering, U.S. Special Operations Command (USSOCOM) conducted extensive rehearsals. At a classified location, U.S. forces constructed a full-scale mockup of the Fort Tiuna residence—described by President Trump as a "fortress"—to drill the extraction team on every contingency. These rehearsals, involving the Army's Delta Force and the FBI's Hostage Rescue Team, focused on breaching fortified structures, neutralizing the Cuban-led security detail, and extracting the targets within a strict time window to avoid encirclement by Venezuelan regular forces.13
2.2 Operational Timeline: January 3, 2026
02:00 VET: The Kinetic Opening
The operation commenced in the early hours of January 3, capitalizing on the tactical advantage of night operations. At approximately 02:00 Venezuelan Standard Time (VET), U.S. aircraft initiated a series of precision airstrikes across northern Venezuela.13 The strike package, which included B-1 Lancer bombers and F-35 Lightning II stealth fighters, targeted key nodes of the Venezuelan Integrated Air Defense System (IADS) and command-and-control centers. These strikes were designed to "blind" the Venezuelan military, severing communications between the high command and field units, thereby preventing a coordinated response to the raid occurring in the capital.16
02:15 VET: The Raid on Fort Tiuna
Under the cover of the airstrikes, the apprehension force infiltrated Caracas airspace. Supported by RQ-170 Sentinel stealth drones providing real-time overwatch, helicopters delivered the assault team to the target compound at Fort Tiuna.13 The engagement was immediate and ferocious. Unlike the capture of Manuel Noriega in 1989, who eventually surrendered after a standoff, Maduro's security detail—comprising elite Venezuelan guards and Cuban intelligence officers—offered stiff resistance.17
U.S. forces utilized "flash-bang" grenades and advanced close-quarters battle (CQB) tactics to breach the residence. The firefight resulted in significant casualties among the defenders. Flash reports and subsequent confirmations indicated that the security detail was effectively "wiped out" during the breach.6
03:00 VET: Extraction and Transfer
Within an hour of the initial breach, the assault team had secured Nicolás Maduro and Cilia Flores. Both were reportedly injured during the chaotic extraction, sustaining cuts and bruises as they were moved to the extraction point.15 They were loaded onto waiting helicopters and transported out of Venezuelan airspace to the USS Iwo Jima, an amphibious assault ship positioned in international waters in the Caribbean.6 This maritime transfer point was a strategic choice, avoiding the diplomatic and legal complications of utilizing a third-country land base for the initial detention.
18:00 VET: Arrival in the United States
Following initial processing and medical checks aboard the USS Iwo Jima, the captives were flown to Stewart Air National Guard Base in New York, landing shortly before 18:00 VET. They were then transferred by helicopter to the Westside Heliport in Manhattan and transported via armored convoy to a Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) facility for processing, before being remanded to the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn.13
2.3 Casualty Assessment: The Human Cost
The operation, while successful in its primary objective, exacted a heavy toll in human life, highlighting the intensity of the combat.
Table 1: Confirmed and Estimated Casualties
The confirmation of 32 Cuban fatalities is strategically significant.20 It provides empirical verification of the long-alleged integration of Cuban security services into the core of the Venezuelan state. These were not mere advisors; they were combatants willing to die in defense of the Venezuelan president, underscoring the existential stake Havana holds in the survival of the Bolivarian regime.26
3. The Legal Battlefield: Domestic Authority vs. International Law
The unilateral extraction of a sitting head of state by a foreign power presents a profound challenge to the established international legal order. The divergence between U.S. domestic legal justifications and international legal norms has created a schism in the global response to the operation.
3.1 U.S. Domestic Justification: The Law Enforcement Paradigm
The United States frames Operation Absolute Resolve not as an act of war, but as a specialized law enforcement action backed by military capability. This distinction is crucial for the administration's domestic legal posture.
The "Noriega Precedent"
The primary legal foundation cited by U.S. officials is the precedent set by the 1989 invasion of Panama and the capture of Manuel Noriega (United States v. Noriega). In that case, U.S. courts ruled that the manner of a defendant's capture (even if illegal under international law) does not divest a U.S. court of jurisdiction to try them, a principle known as the Ker-Frisbie doctrine.27 The Trump administration argues that, like Noriega, Maduro is not a legitimate political leader but the head of a transnational criminal enterprise, the Cartel of the Suns.6
The Indictment
Maduro faces charges in the Southern District of New York for:
Narco-terrorism Conspiracy: Collaborating with the FARC and other groups to flood the U.S. with cocaine as a weapon of asymmetric warfare.5
Cocaine Importation Conspiracy: Facilitating the transit of narcotics through Venezuelan territory.5
Possession of Machine Guns and Destructive Devices: Related to the armed protection of the drug trade.6
By categorizing the operation as the apprehension of an indicted fugitive who poses a direct threat to U.S. national security (via the drug trade), the administration invokes Article II constitutional powers, arguing the President has the inherent authority to use force to protect the nation and enforce federal law.13
3.2 International Law: Sovereignty and Immunity
Conversely, the operation is widely viewed by international legal scholars and foreign governments as a clear violation of the United Nations Charter.
Article 2(4) and Aggression
Article 2(4) of the UN Charter prohibits the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state. The bombing of Venezuelan infrastructure and the deployment of ground troops constitute a classic "armed attack".32 The U.S. cannot easily claim self-defense under Article 51, as there was no imminent armed attack by Venezuela against the United States—drug trafficking, while criminal, rarely meets the threshold of "armed attack" in international jurisprudence.33
Sovereign Immunity
Under customary international law, serving heads of state enjoy absolute immunity from foreign criminal jurisdiction (ratione personae). While the U.S. argues Maduro lost his legitimacy following the fraudulent elections, he remained the de facto head of state, recognized by the UN and holding effective control over the territory.33 His capture is thus characterized by critics and adversaries as an illegal abduction and a violation of Venezuelan sovereignty.34
3.3 The International Criminal Court (ICC) Dilemma
The situation presents a complex challenge for the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague. The ICC has an open investigation into crimes against humanity in Venezuela, initiated by a referral from six Latin American states in 2018.36
The "Catch-22"
The ICC Prosecutor, Karim Khan, faces a paradox. On one hand, the ICC has signaled the likely issuance of arrest warrants for Maduro regime officials due to the lack of genuine domestic proceedings.36 Accepting Maduro's surrender from the U.S. would allow the Court to prosecute a major perpetrator of atrocities. On the other hand, doing so could be perceived as legitimizing the U.S. use of force, which violated the very international laws the ICC is meant to uphold.36
Furthermore, the U.S. is constrained by the American Servicemembers' Protection Act, which limits direct support to the ICC. However, the unique circumstances might lead to a pragmatic, albeit legally messy, cooperation where evidence is shared, or the U.S. eventually transfers Maduro to The Hague if domestic trials become politically untenable—though currently, the U.S. seems intent on a domestic trial.36
4. The Political Vacuum: A Fragile Transition
The removal of the autocrat has not resulted in the immediate collapse of the autocratic structure. Instead, a complex and fragile transition is underway, managed heavily by U.S. interests that appear to prioritize stability over immediate democratization.
4.1 The Interim Presidency of Delcy Rodríguez
In a move that stunned the Venezuelan opposition and many international observers, the United States has tacitly accepted the swearing-in of Vice President Delcy Rodríguez as Interim President.18
The Pragmatic Calculation
This decision appears driven by hard-nosed realpolitik. Intelligence assessments, reportedly provided by the CIA to the White House, indicated that an immediate handover of power to opposition leader María Corina Machado could precipitate a civil war. The Venezuelan armed forces (FANB) and the sprawling patronage network of the Chavista state were unlikely to submit to their historical adversary without a fight. Rodríguez, a regime insider with deep connections to the military and economic elite, was viewed as the only figure capable of maintaining order and preventing the country from dissolving into anarchy or being seized by radical armed groups.39
Conditional Legitimacy
The U.S. support for Rodríguez is highly conditional. President Trump’s statement that she is "willing to do what we think is necessary" implies a puppet-master relationship where her tenure is dependent on strict alignment with U.S. objectives—specifically, the stabilization of the oil sector and the dismantling of anti-U.S. alliances.18 This creates a "controlled transition" where Rodríguez acts as a caretaker, operating under the existential threat of further U.S. military action if she deviates from the script.40
4.2 The Sidelining of the Democratic Opposition
The democratic opposition, which claimed victory in the 2024 election under the banner of Edmundo González and María Corina Machado, finds itself in a paradoxical position. They have achieved their primary goal—the removal of Maduro—but have been denied the prize of governance.
Machado’s Dilemma
María Corina Machado has publicly celebrated the operation as "the hour of freedom," positioning her coalition as the legitimate heirs to power.15 However, President Trump’s dismissal of her candidacy—stating she "doesn't have the respect" within the country—undercuts her political capital.42 This suggests a U.S. strategy that views the opposition as too polarizing or too weak to manage the immediate post-Maduro volatility. The opposition must now navigate a landscape where they are the popular choice but not the choice of the occupying power, forcing them to negotiate with a "Chavista-lite" interim government backed by Washington.43
4.3 Military Loyalty and the Cuban Void
The stability of the interim government rests entirely on the loyalty of the Venezuelan armed forces (FANB). Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López has publicly reaffirmed the military's allegiance to Delcy Rodríguez, preserving the constitutional chain of command and preventing an immediate coup.14
However, the internal security architecture has been shattered. The death of 32 Cuban operatives and the likely rapid exit of remaining Cuban advisors creates a massive void in the regime's counter-intelligence capabilities.26 For years, Cuban intelligence served as the "firewall" against military dissent, monitoring barracks and purging disloyal officers. With this firewall gone, the FANB may become more fractured, potentially opening the door for future coups or a gradual drift away from Chavismo as the threat of internal purges diminishes.
5. Global Geopolitical Reactions: The "Don-roe Doctrine" in Action
The intervention in Venezuela is the inaugural and defining act of what the Trump administration has termed the "Don-roe Doctrine"—a hyper-militarized update to the 1823 Monroe Doctrine. This doctrine asserts not just the exclusion of extra-hemispheric powers, but an active U.S. right to intervene militarily to secure resources and remove regimes deemed "illegitimate".8
5.1 China: Strategic Reversal and Asset Protection
For the People's Republic of China, Operation Absolute Resolve represents a catastrophic strategic failure. Venezuela was a cornerstone of Beijing’s engagement in Latin America, a major recipient of loans (repaid in oil), and a key partner in the Belt and Road Initiative.
Diplomatic and Economic Fallout
Beijing has issued strong condemnations, labeling the operation as "unilateral bullying" and a violation of the UN Charter.34 However, its response has been constrained. China’s primary interest is now asset protection. The "Don-roe Doctrine" explicitly aims to sever the Venezuelan oil supply chain to China, threatening billions in outstanding loans and investments.8 The U.S. seizure of tankers and the potential handover of the oil sector to U.S. majors (Chevron, Exxon) would effectively expropriate Chinese influence in the country.35
The Taiwan Precedent
Beyond economics, Chinese strategists are likely analyzing the operation through the lens of Taiwan. The U.S. willingness to conduct a decapitation strike against a sovereign leader sends a chilling signal about the erosion of sovereignty norms. It may force Beijing to accelerate its own timeline for securing strategic depth or to reassess the vulnerability of its partners in a world where the U.S. is willing to use direct force to effect regime change.45
5.2 Russia: The Exposure of Weakness
Russia’s response has been notably muted, exposing the limits of its power projection capabilities. Despite years of rhetorical support, arms sales, and the deployment of nuclear-capable bombers to Venezuela in the past, Moscow could do nothing to stop the U.S. operation.
Loss of Credibility
The Kremlin’s inability to protect a key ally undermines its claim to be a global security guarantor and a counterweight to U.S. hegemony.47 The response has been limited to verbal condemnations from the Foreign Ministry and aggressive posturing by security officials like Dmitry Medvedev, who engaged in a social media spat with the U.S. State Department.48 Practically, Russia is too bogged down in Ukraine to open a second front in the Caribbean, leaving Venezuela to its fate.
5.3 Europe: Caught Between Law and Relief
The European Union finds itself in a diplomatic bind. European nations generally despised the Maduro regime and recognized the opposition in the past, yet they are structurally committed to the rules-based international order which the U.S. operation violated.
Fractured Consensus
Reactions have been mixed. French President Emmanuel Macron expressed relief at the end of the dictatorship, while Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez criticized the violation of international law.7 The EU’s joint statement reflects this paralysis: calling for a peaceful transition and respect for international law without forcefully condemning the U.S. action.50 This ambivalence highlights Europe’s security dependence on the U.S. and its inability to shape outcomes in the Western Hemisphere.
5.4 Latin America: Sovereignty vs. Alignment
The region is deeply divided. Conservative governments may quietly welcome the removal of a destabilizing neighbor, but the method has terrified the region’s left-wing leaders.
Colombia: President Gustavo Petro condemned the operation, fearing the precedent it sets for his own government. Colombia has mobilized troops to the border to manage potential spillover but remains a U.S. ally, creating a tense diplomatic tightrope.52
Mexico: President Claudia Sheinbaum rejected the intervention, emphasizing sovereignty. Mexico fears that the "Don-roe Doctrine" justifications—fighting cartels and drug trafficking—could easily be applied to Mexican territory.52
Cuba and Nicaragua: For these regimes, the operation is an existential threat. The death of Cuban troops and the targeted nature of the raid signal that they could be next on the target list of a re-emboldened Washington.54
6. Energy Markets and Economic Reconstruction
A central, if not primary, motivation for Operation Absolute Resolve was the rehabilitation and control of Venezuela's oil reserves—the largest in the world at 303 billion barrels.56 The operation is expected to fundamentally alter global energy flows, redirecting Venezuelan crude from Chinese markets back to the U.S. Gulf Coast.
6.1 The State of the Industry: Ruin and Recovery
The narrative of a quick oil bonanza is tempered by the physical reality of the Venezuelan oil infrastructure.
Infrastructure Decay
Decades of underinvestment, brain drain, and looting have left PDVSA in ruins. The "upgraders"—complex refineries needed to process the extra-heavy crude from the Orinoco belt into exportable synthetic crude—are largely offline or operating at a fraction of capacity.57 Pipelines are rusted, and reservoirs have been damaged by improper management.
The Investment Gap
Reviving the sector will require an estimated $100 billion to $120 billion in capital over the next decade.56 While President Trump has called for U.S. majors to "go in," companies like Chevron, ExxonMobil, and ConocoPhillips will confront significant risks. They require a stable legal framework (a new hydrocarbon law), physical security for their personnel in a country awash with weapons, and assurances that their assets won't be nationalized by a future government.59
6.2 Production Forecasts
Market analysts are cautious about the speed of recovery. It will not be a sudden flood of oil but a slow, capital-intensive grind.
Table 2: Venezuelan Oil Production Forecasts (Post-Intervention)
6.3 Global Market Impact
In the short term, the market impact is muted. The "risk premium" has largely been priced in, and the immediate disruption to the small volume of current exports is negligible.62 However, in the medium to long term, a resurgent Venezuela could add 1-2 million bpd to global supply. This would put downward pressure on prices, potentially challenging the OPEC+ alliance's ability to manage the market, especially if Venezuela (under U.S. tutelage) leaves or ignores OPEC quotas.2
Crucially, the redirection of oil to the U.S. creates a new energy security paradigm for Washington, reducing reliance on Middle Eastern imports even further and solidifying North American energy independence.57
7. Conclusion: The Dawn of a New Era
Operation Absolute Resolve is more than a military raid; it is a geopolitical statement. By forcibly removing a sitting head of state and asserting direct control over the transition of a major oil producer, the United States has shattered the post-Cold War norms of non-intervention in the Western Hemisphere.
Strategic Implications:
The Normalization of Force: The U.S. has signaled that "gray zone" conflicts with rogue regimes will not remain gray forever. The willingness to use "decapitation" tactics creates a new deterrence model but also invites asymmetric retaliation from adversaries who now know they are targets for direct elimination.
The Limits of Democracy Promotion: The installation of Delcy Rodríguez reveals a U.S. strategy that prioritizes order and interests over democratic ideals. This may stabilize the country in the short term but risks alienating the Venezuelan population and perpetuating the very institutional rot that created the crisis.
The New Cold War in the Americas: The expulsion of Chinese and Russian influence from Venezuela is a major victory for the "Don-roe Doctrine." However, it will likely accelerate bloc formation, forcing Latin American nations to choose sides in a way they have tried to avoid. The region is no longer a strategic backwater but a primary theater of great power competition.
Legal Fragmentation: The operation weakens the binding power of international law. By bypassing the UN and redefining sovereignty based on U.S. recognition, the intervention accelerates the trend toward a fragmented global order where "might makes right" and international norms are applied selectively.
As Venezuela enters this precarious new chapter, the world watches not just the fate of one nation, but the unfolding of a new, more aggressive era of American power projection—one where the boundaries of sovereignty are drawn not by treaties, but by the operational reach of the United States military.
Report by:
Dr. Elias Thorne
Senior Analyst, Geopolitical Risk & Security Strategy
January 7, 2026
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